Project
COVID-19 Outbreaks Simulation and Analysis by an Extended SEIR Model focus on the hidden asymptomatic infections
Modeling COVID-19 with three outbreak-spread simulation methodologies - by continuum dynamical system (SIER system by differential equations), by a SEIR cellular automata model, by a Markov Chain Analysis Based on One Dimensional CA model.
Project Highlights:
Traditional disease spread models such as SIR or SEIR may not describe the COVID-19 spread correctly, as a quite large portion of people infected are asymtomatic but still infectious to others.
Thus, an extended SEIR model was proposed and analyzed in this project paper to address the asymtomatic transmission during the incubation period.
ODE, cellular automata and Markov Chain are the three approaches being used to deploy the conceptual models. The simulated results are collected, and analyzed. Real world data is also used to validate the prediction models.